Update on Thesis Research

So, before I begin, I'll post my now out-of-date Thesis proposal (more on that later).

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Assessing Vulnerability To and Emergency Management Methods for Extreme Cold in Khorogh, Tajikistan

Abstract

Tajikistan is home to some of the world’s most remote mountain villages in the Pamir Mountains, and with an average elevation of 3000m and a continental interior location, the country is prone to high temperature variability throughout the year, including extreme cold in the winter.  This former Soviet outpost is also the poorest of the 15 former Soviet Socialist Republics, has suffered severe infrastructural battering from the fall of the USSR and years of subsequent civil war, and sees regular fluctuations in its energy and food production capacities.  There exist bodies of research within several fields including agriculture, energy, health, hazards and disasters, NGO-led aid, and the potential of GIS and Remote Sensing within this region.  However, there is little research to-date focusing specifically on mitigation techniques for extreme cold weather in the remote Gorno Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO).  Essentially all research reviewed pertaining to the mountain communities of Tajikistan depict a cycle of poor infrastructure, rampant resource mismanagement, land degradation, poverty, critically fragile education and health sectors, a long list of annual environmental hazards, and alienation, which have rendered the Badakhshan Region of Tajikistan highly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme cold weather.  The objective of this project is to first operationalize vulnerability in the context of GBAO, Tajikistan.  The second objective is to perform a case study by semi-structured interviews with hospital, school, health, and community staff, village elders, and households within Khorog to identify vulnerability to, and emergency management methods for extreme cold weather within the GBAO.  It is hypothesized that the GBAO is highly vulnerable to extreme cold, resulting from both proximity to a hazardous area, as well as socially-driven vulnerability.  It is also hypothesized that the GBAO constitutes repetitive, ineffective, and unsustainable mitigation and preparation methods for extreme cold weather.  To test these hypotheses, a representative sample of the capital city of the GBAO, Khorog, will be selected.  Social science research will then be carried out across the city in the form of semi-structured interviews with village elders, hospital, school, health, and community staff, as well as semi-structured interviews with households within the city.  .

Introduction

The Central Asian Republic of Tajikistan is one of fifteen Soviet Socialist Republics (Figures 1, 2).  It is 93% mountainous, straddles the Roof of the World, and lies right along the stomping grounds of Alexander the Great and Marco Polo.  It is one of five Central Asian Republics along with Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, and is bordered by China to the east, Kyrgyzstan to the north, Uzbekistan to the west, and Afghanistan to the south.  Geographically, Tajikistan is 93% mountainous with the lowest-lying areas being to the far NW and SW of the country.  The country is dominated physically by two large west-to-east mountain ranges north of Dushanbe, the Zeravshan and Fannsky Gorry ranges, with several peaks above 5,000m (MSL), and extending from the Pamir Knot by the mighty Pamir Mountains, an extension of the Himalayan Range of Nepal, China, and Kashmir (India/Pakistan, contested), and of the Tien Shan Range of western China, all to the east, with numerous peaks in excess of 7,000m (MSL), the tallest of which, Ismoil Somoni Peak, at 7,495m (MSL) is the highest in all of the former Soviet Union.

Ethnically, Tajikistan is greatly divided amongst Tajiks, Uzbeks, Russians, Kyrgyz, Turkic, and Gharmi peoples, and Pamiri peoples in the Pamir Mountains.  The country has seen extensive turmoil since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, marked by civil war along ethnic, religious, and political lines, drug trafficking and threatened spread of Islamic Fundamentalism in the south beckoning the use of Russian military force, natural disasters, large-scale poverty, and a humanitarian crisis gaining the attention of the United Nations.

Climatically, the Zeravshan River Valley and greater Dushanbe region to the south experience a hot summer continental climate with temperatures soaring above 40C at times, while the far west and north experience a Mediterranean climate.  The central part of the country, the western GBAO (and western Pamir Mountains) experience a steppe climate.  Eastern GBAO is classified as a desert climate, with erratic precipitation patterns and orographic rain shadows (Figure 3). 

            This author has lived in Tajikistan for over 4 months as a teacher, and has seen firsthand the deficiencies of the entire country, particularly mountainous communities, to extreme cold, as well as the subsequent necessity for further research into emergency management techniques for, and vulnerabilities to this hazard.  There are several reasons this is important.  High fuel and food insecurity is exacerbated by extreme cold.  Tajikistan is also prone to a long list of natural hazards, among which are avalanche, earthquakes, flood, and mass wasting.  These hazards, when realized as disasters, and coupled with extreme cold during winter months, can lead to a relatively new form of crisis in the international community known as a ‘compound disaster’, meaning that when these disasters do occur, emergency response efforts can be further complicated by extreme cold weather.  It is necessary to identify the most effective methods of dealing with extreme cold both in everyday life, and more importantly during times of crisis.  Most of the nation is prone to electricity outages, forcing them to rely on non-electrical means of warmth for much of the year in remote mountainous regions.  This and deficiencies in several other primary sectors calls for a comprehensive approach to identification of, and rectification of deficiencies in mitigation and preparation methods for extreme cold in rural mountainous communities before emergency management methods for other natural disasters occurring during winter months in these remote areas can be truly effective.

Literature Review

Tajikistan is a heavily mountainous Central Asian country which is extremely vulnerable to natural hazards, among which are earthquakes, mass wasting, floods, avalanche, and extreme cold, particularly within mountain communities.  Research within Tajikistan has been limited for several reasons, including civil war, reconstruction, poor economy, and poor academic scholarship promotion.  There has been limited research conducted, however, and in instances, collaboration among Soviet and western scientists, particularly during the time of The Great Game, the strategic competition between the Russian and British empires for supremacy in Central Asia during the 19^th century(Yablokov, 2001).  Research was not easily conducted during and immediately after the fall of the USSR.  There were, however, scientists interested in developing, implementing, and furthering social science research within Russia and other former SSR’s (Porfiriev et. al., 1996). 

For Tajikistan, the mid-1990’s saw the country gripped in the clutches of a brutal civil war fought over religion, politics, and ethnicity.  Hundreds of thousands of people were displaced during the Soviet era, and return migration took place after the collapse of the Soviet Union, seeing the particular return of Pamiri people to the Pamir Mountains region within the GBAO.  With this return migration also came a return, albeit slow and marginal, to the indigenous way of life for many of these mountain people(Deng, 1996). 

The first component of this project deals with operationalizing vulnerability in the context of GBAO, Tajikistan.  Vulnerability can take on many definitions, several aspects, and can be measured by a number of methods(Cutter, 1996).  Vulnerability is essentially the potential for loss, and is a primary factor to consider when forming mitigation strategies for natural hazards.  Tajikistan is subject to a multitude of natural hazards, among which are floods, earthquakes, avalanche, and mass wasting.  The Pamir Mountains also regularly experience temperatures below -25C in the winter.  With the multitude of hazards with which the country must deal, and with critically fragile infrastructure, extreme cold can both further propagate negative impacts from other hazards, as well as hamper response and recovery efforts.  The combination of one hazard with another is a relatively new field of research termed “compound disaster”.

More research on the concept of compound disasters was conducted in the aftermath of an event in the winter of 2007-2008 in Tajikistan(Kelly, 2009).  Drought and subsequent decreased water supplies for hydroelectric sources, increasing fuel and food prices coupled with decreasing supplies of both, and lack of investment in infrastructure, health care, and education in Tajikistan all combined with an extremely cold winter which saw temperatures remain below freezing for well over a month in Dushanbe, which is around 900m above MSL in elevation, well below the national average, to create a disastrous situation beckoning the attention of the international humanitarian community.  Collaboration with the Tajik government and gaining access to government data and documents proved difficult, both because of the government’s fear of the latter reflecting negatively on the government and because of the government’s refusal to recognize the situation as critical.

This new type of “compound disaster” was new and as such very difficult to define by the international community.  This made effective logistical and communication operations difficult, especially in the Pamir Mountains.  24-hour electricity cut-offs, road blockage, poor harvests, abnormally large snowfall amounts, damaged water, health, and hygiene infrastructure, and poor hazard awareness were all issues faced by the international community early in 2008 when the United Nations launched a Flash Appeal(United Nations, 2008).  One of the results of this appeal was the realization that while Tajikistan is one of the most vulnerable countries on earth to natural hazards, its lack of comprehensive mitigation and preparation methods for extreme cold weather, particularly in remote mountainous regions of the country, places it at even higher risk of catastrophic nation-wide failure of basic services, including education and medical care.  Both education and medical care suffered during the winter of 2007-08, as many hospitals were forced to release patients under care due to lack of facility heating, clean water, access, and resources.  The same was true for most rural schools, as 90% of which are estimated to have no functioning heating system, students and teachers were unable to sufficiently heat schools for operation, although it is not the official policy of the Tajik government to close schools due to lack of heating in winter.  While rural communities in the Badakhshan region commonly experience full electricity outages, this situation was an example of how, coupled with extreme cold, high food and fuel insecurity, and scarce resources, a compound crisis can quickly develop(United Nations, 2008).

Research on land development, resource conservation, and energy within the mountainous regions of Tajikistan has been conducted on various scales and for various reasons.  Post-Soviet-era development within Tajikistan has been slow and difficult, particularly in the GBAO.  There are a number of reasons for this, including extensive internal migration within Tajikistan, a decrease or cessation of food, energy, and infrastructure subsidies following the collapse of the USSR, civil war, and political alienation(Breu et. al., 2005).  Land degradation is a serious problem within the Pamir Mountains.  Sparse and erratic precipitation patterns, little vegetation, and improper land use can lead to severe nature- and hum-induced land degradation in the Pamirs.  Another issue is the fact that only a very small percentage of the total land cover in the Pamir Mountains is actually arable.  With very few wooded species growing in the Pamirs, sources of fuel for heating and cooking are becoming sparse without subsidies, and new methods will be required in the future(Jansky et. al., 2006).

A research study conducted in 2007 focused on conservation issues facing the Tajik National Park in central Tajikistan(Haslinger et.al., 2007).  The GBAO developed a heavy reliance on Soviet fuel sources during the USSR, and after its collapse experienced an artificially high population hike due to return migration.  Traditional nomadic settlements reflected, to a large degree, the availability of natural resources in the form of food, pasture land, water, and livestock.  This way of life was largely abandoned during the Soviet period.  This study found three primary issues facing the park: continued and intensified use of biomass as fuel sources, inappropriate pasture use, and increased pressure on wildlife, including endangered species.  This research can be expanded across the Badakhshan region, and employed to identify issues of extreme cold weather mitigation and management, as with increased cold will also come an increase in the misuse of these fuel and food sources(Haslinger et.al., 2007).

In response to this issue of land degradation, research on possible alternative fuel and food sources is necessary.  From the onset of Tajikistan’s induction into the Soviet Union, kitchen gardens consisting of both food and livestock were permitted at the household level.  These were largely extensions of the home and were used to offset diet deficiencies.  At the end of the USSR, surplus food from kitchen gardens constituted one third of the food sold at local markets, and played an especially vital role in the lives of rural families(Rowe, 2009).

The GBAO reliance on resources in the form of food, electricity, and fuels from the Soviet Union furthered the region’s vulnerability, and at the end of the Soviet era, the GBAO was left without any answers.  The subsequent years saw rural Tajikistan, having already lost 90% of its forests to the USSR, rely heavily on local natural resources for energy, often resulting in severe land degradation, especially in the GBAO with 87% of its 213,000 inhabitants living in rural areas as of 2003.  In 2007, an assessment of the relationship between rural energy consumption and land degradation in the GBAO was conducted.  It found that often times with decreased energy supply, there was an increase in energy consumption at the household level.  It also concluded that as these rural mountainous regions suffer from both chronic energy scarcity and the use of local biomass as fuel at an unsustainable rate, there must be a reassessment of the energy scheme of Tajikistan(Hoeck et.al., 2007).

Research conducted in neighboring Kyrgyzstan in 2009 focussed primarily on the energy sector of that country.  It found several problems, among which were poor hydroelectric resource management and unauthorized selling of water to downstream neighboring countries.  This study further expanded on the issue of a lack of investment in national infrastructure from the collapse of the Soviet Union.  It also reviewed the implications on neighboring countries during these disaster events(Juraev, 2009).

Responses to extreme weather events, including extreme cold, were discussed in Bratislava in 2004 at a meeting of the WHO(Meusel et.al., 2004).  Recommendations for responses to extreme cold as a result of this meeting included developing better methods for preventing morbidity and mortality during extreme cold events, particularly for the homeless who are at particular risk during extreme cold.  Research has also been conducted on the growing impact of extreme weather events on populations, due primarily not to an overall increase in frequency of events, but rather to substantial population increase over a relatively short amount of time, in India.  Recommendations from this study were primarily to increase forecast skill, and the subsequent implementation of improved forecasts in disaster management(De et. al., 2005).

As the Badakhshan region began to settle into itself, research and development continued throughout and beyond the borders of Tajikistan.  Afghanistan is an area that is also prone to similar natural hazards to those found in Tajikistan.  Seismic activity is ripe in the region, and in 1998, the region of Faizabad experienced a powerful earthquake.  Adding to the difficulties for humanitarian relief of dealing with this disaster were the compound issues of poor or non-existent road networks, cross-national cooperation between Afghanistan and Tajikistan, and cold weather(Barr, 1998).  This concept of the compounding of issues with regards to natural disasters was one that was relatively new to both the emergency management and humanitarian response communities, and one that would require much further research.

A similar situation was experienced in Armenia during the 1988 Spitak earthquake of comparable intensity as the one in Afghanistan.  Again, the response and recovery efforts with this disaster were compounded by other issues, particularly extreme cold weather(Kelly, 2000).  While the initial hazard was an earthquake, the extreme cold quickly became dominant.  The primary concern within a framework of emergency management immediately following a disaster is the immediate response, inclusive of, but not limited to medical treatment, food, water, and shelter.  This response phase can, however, sometimes carry over into the recovery phase.  For instance, one issue in dealing with disasters that occur during times of cool or very cold weather is that the onset of extreme cold can multiply problems for victims, particularly in terms of food and water delivery access, proper shelter, and disease prevention.  Another very important aspect of dealing with these types of situations is that issues faced by humanitarian forces in dealing with extreme cold, whether combined with other hazards or stand-alone, must be documented, both in terms of problems and solutions to these problems, otherwise it is difficult for different humanitarian groups not in contact to learn from previous experiences, such as was the case with the humanitarian efforts in Bosnia during extreme cold weather in the 20^th century.

            An examination of the potential utility of GIS and Remote Sensing in the context of the development of effective, comprehensive emergency management methods is examined by Cunha, 1998.  Again, the issue of both return migration and high environmental hazard vulnerability is discussed, specifically the occurrence of high magnitude, low frequency, and often catastrophic events in mountainous Tajikistan.  Specific hazards facing rural mountain populations are avalanche, mass wasting, and earthquakes.  The use of GIS and Remote Sensing in high mountain regions will undoubtedly prove highly valuable in years to come(Cunha, 1998). 

Another hazard facing the GBAO exists today as a result of a 1911 catastrophic earthquake-induced landslide in the Pamir Mountains which blocked the Bartang Murgab River valley and buried the village of Usoi, creating a natural dam, named the Usoi landslide dam.  A lake began building in behind this dam, rising rapidly for a number of years, initially as much as 75m/year, and flooded the village of Sarez, hence the lake is now named Sarez Lake.  Should the Usoi landslide dam fail, it is estimated over five million people would be affected downstream as far as the Aral Sea in western Uzbekistan.  An early detection and warning system has been developed but its effectiveness or reach is not known to date(Alford, 2000).  In both the case of high mountain remote sensing and cartography as well as the Sarez Lake EWS, for these measures to be effective, field social science research must be conducted to better identify and prioritize the immediate needs in terms of emergency management with respect to several hazards which can occur during extreme cold weather events.

Tajikistan currently has several international actors within the country, including the United Nations, World Food Programme, World Bank, and Red Crescent of Tajikistan.  The Rapid Emergency Assessment and Coordination Team (REACT) was formed in 2001 jointly by the United Nations and the Tajik Ministry of Emergency Situations (MoES) in an effort to create a more efficient and communication-open disaster management network within the country.  REACT has since been utilized during several events within Tajikistan, and sits alongside the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project (LSRMP), Tajikistan, a branch developed to both monitor Sarez Lake and provide an early detection and warning system to the downstream residents in the event of a dam failure, both under the umbrella of the MoES(Asian Disaster Reduction Center, 2006).  Several other organizations, including the University of Central Asia, under which falls the Mountain Societies Research Centre, Focus Humanitarian Assistance, and Aga Khan Foundation all currently operate in the GBAO under the umbrella of the Aga Khan Development Network (AKDN), which has been largely responsible for funding both basic necessities as well as development programmes in the GBAO since the end of the post-Soviet Tajik civil war.

Methodology

Data sources within Tajikistan are sporadic and often unreliable.  During the time of the Soviet Union, census and private data were maintained primarily in Stalingrad (St. Petersburg), Russian SSR.  Disclosure of these data both during Soviet and post-Soviet times has been either marginal or non-existent.  After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tajikistan was engulfed in a 5-year civil war, which was followed by totalitarian-style government rule.  Academic encouragement has been severely suppressed up to this point.  For this research project, in-person social science research methods will be conducted within and around Tajikistan.  There are datasets, however, maintained by several NGO agencies currently in Tajikistan. 

It is the purpose of this research to assess vulnerability to, and mitigation and preparation techniques for extreme cold weather in regards to the remote mountain communities of the GBAO; specifically this assessment will target certain sectors which previous literature on the target region has shown to be particularly vulnerable to extreme cold, namely agriculture, energy, infrastructure, education, health services, water services, and household heating.  Due to the human component of test subject for this project, IRB approval will be attained prior to conducting any field research.  This research project will take place in the form of a case study within the GBAO capital city of Khorogh.  GIS will be used to assess the representativeness of Khorogh for village communities across the GBAO.

The research will be conducted in two phases.  First, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with representatives of several sectors, namely village elders, community leaders, hospital staff, school staff, and university faculty.  A pre-determined list of questions will be asked among each sector, during each interview.  These questions will be aimed at identifying commonalities regarding techniques which can prove either useful or detrimental to mitigation and preparation for extreme cold weather.  Second, semi-structured interviews will be conducted with households within Khorogh in a similar fashion as the sector-specific phase.  Some specific targets of the questioning for both phases include references to crowding in homes, venting for interior heating, sources of fuel, electricity supply, communication between villages, the role of kitchen gardens, specific mentioning of changes since the compound disaster of 2007-08, winterization of schools, hospitals, and homes, and the practice of one warm room per household. 

It is likely that the Badakhshan region of Tajikistan has continued to experience fuel and food insecurity due to price rises and land degradation, as well as poor infrastructure and road networks.  With a lack of investment on the part of the Tajik government in critical infrastructure, it is likely there has been little change in this situation since the UN Flash Appeal of 2008.  The sudden collapse of the USSR left the Badakhshan region highly vulnerable to extreme cold weather, and its opposition to the current government has only further propagated this alienation.  Critical sectors such as healthcare and education have likely continued to suffer from lack of resources and winterization, and as such remain highly vulnerable to the effects of extreme cold.  Households probably remain very reliant upon kitchen gardens and unsustainable use of vegetation and cow dung as fuel sources, as well as practice one-room-heating, perhaps with poor ventilation.  Lastly, at the community level, sparse population, poor communication, lack of fuel, and degraded road networks likely render most rural mountain villages in the Badakhshan region isolated for much of the winter season, during which the risk of extreme cold is greatest.

References

Alford, D., and Cunha, S.F., and Ives, J.D., 2000:  Mountain Hazards and Development Assistance:  Lake Sarez, Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan.  Mountain Rsch. and Devt., 20, 12-15.

Asian Disaster Reduction Center, 2006:  Total Disaster Risk Management Good Practices 2006 Supplement, 34pp.

Barr, J, 1999:  Disaster Response with a Difference –Afghanistan June 1998.  Aust. Jnl. of EM. Mgt., 18, 2-6.

Breu, T., and Maselli, D., and Hurni, H., 2005:  Knowledge for Sustainable Development in the Tajik Pamir Mountains. Mtn. Rsch. and Devt., 25, 139-146.

Cunha, S.F.:  Hazardous Terrain:  The Need for High Mountain Cartography and Remote Sensing in the Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan CITATION INFORMATION PENDING.

Cutter, S.L., 1996:  Vulnerability to environmental hazards.  Progress in Human Geography, 20, 529-539.

De, U.S., and Dube, R.K., and Prakasa Rao, G.S., 2005:  Extreme Weather Events over India in the last 100 years.  J. Ind. Geophys. Union, 9, 173-187.

Deng, F., 1996:  UN General Assembly Human Rights Questions:  Human Rights Situations and Reports of Special Rapporteurs and Representatives.  Profiles in displacement:  Tajikistan/A/51/483, 51 pp.

Haslinger, A., and Breu, T., and Hurni, H., and Maselli, D., 2007:  Opportunities and risks in reconciling conservation and development in a post-Soviet setting:  The example of the Tajik National Park.  Intl. J. of Biodiv. Sci. & Mgt., 3, 157-169.

Hoeck, T., and Droux, R., and Breu, T., and Hurni, H., and Maselli, D., 2007:  Rural energy consumption and land degradation in a post-Soviet setting – an example from the west Pamir Mountains in Tajikistan.  Energy for Sust. Devt., 11, 48-57.

Jansky, L., and Pachova, N.I., 2006:  Towards Sustainable Land Management in Mountain Areas in Central Asia.  Glob. Envir. Rsch., 10, 99-115.

Juraev, S., 2009:  Energy Emergency in Kyrgyzstan:  Causes and Consequences., No. 5, 6 pp.

Kelly, C., 2000:  Disaster Assistance in Cold Weather Conditions:  An Overview of Issues and Options. Earthquake Hazard and Seismic Risk Reduction. Balassanian, S., and Cisternas, A., and Melkumyan, M., Kluwer Academic Publishers, 21-30.

________, 2009:  Field note from Tajikistan: Compound Disaster – A new humanitarian challenge?  Jnl. of Distr. Risk Stds., 2, 295-301.

Meusel, D., and Menne, B., and Kirch, W., and Bertollini, R., 2004:  Public Health Responses to Extreme Weather and Climate Events – A Brief Summary of the WHO Meeting on this topic in Bratislava on 9-10 February 2004. J. Public Health, 12, 371-381.

Porfiriev, B.N., and Quarantelli, E.L., 1996:  Social Science Research on Mitigation of and Recovery from Disasters and Large Scale Hazards in Russia. The University of Deleware: Rsch. Ctr. Book and Monogr. Srs, No. 29, 28 pp.

Rowe, W.C., 2009:  “Kitchen Gardens’ in Tajikistan:  The Economic and Cultural Importance of Small-Scale Private Property in a Post-Soviet Society.  Springer Science, 37, 691-703.

United Nations, 2008:  Tajikistan Compound Crises Flash Appeal 2008.  [http://ochaonline.un.org/humanitarianappeal/webpage.asp?Page=1657].  Date of Access:  15 March 2012.

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So, that is my former proposal; former, because as of last week, Khorog underwent military action from the central Tajik government in Dushanbe as a result of the killing of a Tajik government official by rebels in Khorog, the capital of the GBAO.  Aside from the obvious security threat being just 6 weeks away, I felt the results of my interviews would be skewed in such a way that it is impractical on several levels to conduct this research in GBAO at this time.  I'll look to do research there later, once the situation calms itself.  Below are a few pictures from the recent fighting over the last week.  WARNING:  GRAPHIC

Back to my project, in its current form now, I will now be conducting this project in the northwestern part of the country, amidst the Fannsky Gorry mountain range, in a rural village in close proximity to Penjikent, Tajikistan.  This is actually a very sensible area to conduct this project, as the severe winter of 2007/2008 was most extreme outside of the GBAO, so this will be a good follow-up to the Tajikistan Flash Appeal issued by the United Nations early 2008 which detailed many of the causes of, and results of the "Compound Crisis" which resulted from the conditions.

I'll post my new proposal over the next week when I finish it.  I leave for Dushanbe 4 September via Bali, Kuala Lumpur, and Almaty Kazakhstan.

.RBT

KAP/KAV

So, I thought I would take a bit of a break from thesis prep to post some update stuff on my KAP/KAV projects.  For those who don't know, KAP is Kite Aerial Photography and KAV is " " Video.  I first became fascinated with this around a year ago, more as a hobby at that point.  A few months ago, I began thinking of ways to use this for emergency management purposes.  The basic idea is that you attach a rig which holds your camera(s) to a suspension system, a common one is called a picavet cross, lace string through the picavet, and attach those two ends to your kite line once the kite is aloft a few hundred feet and stable.

This has been quite a progression over the last 3 months, as it all started with a $10 parafoil kite off ebay.  My first KAP trial was actually using a make-shift rig, which was a rolled up first-aid kit and a 3.1mp phone set to video mode, attached to a 9ft. delta kite.  The delta actually achieved nearly 3000ft. in height but the phone cut off well before that.  I then took various screenshots of the video, imported them into ArcMap, and georectified them using orthophoto imagery from the department.  Screenshots of the first rig and orthorectification results are below.

 Now here are a few photos of my new rig.  This is a servo-BEAK, auto-electric rotating and self-shuttering, from Brooks Leffler.  I've done some minor adjusting, and added an adhesive mount for my GoPro Hero2, so I can capture both stills and video at the same time.  I can also point it downward for stills and sideways for video.

 Here's a couple of photos of me pack and of my line.  That's 1000' of 200# and 2000' of 100# black braided dacron line.  Also, here's the 9ft. delta conyne I've reinforced, for the time being, with duct tape.  I've been using this in the absence of my delta, which is hanging in a tree currently, as well as trialing it against the delta for its high flying angle with fairly good pull.   I'm ordering replacements next week.  Looking at training the conynes, and possibly piloting 2-3 of them with a double-carbon fiber frame reinforced delta.

 And I will end with a couple of pictures taken with my new rig/cameras.  One is at nite, showing the Perth CBD with the Kwinana Freeway winding to the west, facing North.  The other is at Yallingdup, Western Australia, from about 1300'.

I will be continuing on the development of this project, as it will be fully functional by the first part of September when I go to Tajikistan for my thesis research.  I also have plans for several high altitude weather balloon projects, as well as FPV using RC airplanes.  Exciting things in the future!.

%RBT

My final paper for my Adv. Haz. and Disasters class for my AMP.

Bryce Touchstone

GR8813 Advanced Hazards and Disasters

Mississippi State University; Fall 2011

Emergency Management Methods for Bushfires in Western Australia

            Outside of Antarctica, Australia is the driest continent on earth(BOM, 2011).  While it is comparable in size to the contiguous United States, it is geographically disadvantaged when it comes to rainfall in a couple of regards:  It lacks a major mountain range, and its continental poleward extent is well outside of the Antarctic, which provides little rainfall from orographic effects and quarantines the country from polar air outbreaks, as compared to the United States.  Australia relies heavily upon Tropical influences for rainfall in the North, and upon river systems to bring water down to the drier Southern regions. 

            Fire itself is controlled by the fire triangle of heat, oxygen, and fuel, while the fire environment is controlled by the fire behaviour triangle which consists of weather, topography, and fuels(COMET, 2009).  The elements of weather that affect fire behaviour are temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and direction, precipitation, and atmospheric stability(COMET, 2009).  Bushfires thrive under hot, dry, windy conditions, with natural ignitions of fuel coming often from lightning.  Under a regime of a stalled ridge with surface conditions hot and with relatively high pressure in place, particularly in summer months, bushfires can last for weeks.  In the Australian Outback region, oftentimes bushfires are beyond the capabilities of emergency services, and are extinguished only with the arrival of cooler temperatures and rainfall(Smith et al., 2009). Topography can act to both hamper and enhance the fire environment.  Dry inland salt lakes can create natural fire breaks, giving bushfires nowhere to spread to, given their lack of vegetation(O’Donnell, 2009).  Conversely, fire can spread as much as 2-3 times as fast upslope as it can downslope, so topography can play a very vital role in bushfire management, particularly in mountainous alpine areas(Hasson et al., 2008).  Fuels themselves are any form of ground vegetation capable of igniting or spreading a bushfire(DEC, 2011).  Some characteristics of fuels to be considered are fuel loading, the compactness of the fuels, fuel size, fuel shape, fuel (vegetation) type, and the horizontal and vertical extent of fuels(DEC, 2011).

            The occurrence of bushfires in Australia is mistakenly thought to be primarily in the southern regions.  However, research has shown that bushfires occur primarily in savannah landscapes of Tropical Northern Australia, which experiences monsoonal influences(Russell-Smith et al., 2007).  The study from Smith et al. utilized both Fire Hot Spot (FHS) and Fire Active Area (FAA) datasets, mapping daily fire activity with use of algorithms and 9-day burnt areas due to the orbital pass of the NOAA-AVHRR platform, respectively.  Smith et al. omitted nearly 90% of all individual fires acquired with the FAA method due to the level of error associated with the relatively small size of these fires, however in doing so, found that these fires accounted for less than 3% of the total burnt area.  Figure 1 shows the Seasonal (quarterly) distribution of FHS from 2002(Russell-Smith et al., 2007).  Figure 2 shoes the frequency of large fires derived from FAA mapping, from 1997-2004(RussellSmith et al., 2007).  The circled area represents the 2002-2003 southern Australian bushfires.  It should be noted that the FAA data was acquired from 1997-2004 for the entire country, and from 1990-2004 for Western Australia and Northern Territory.  For this particular study, only the years 1997-2004 were used.

Figure 1(Smith et al.)

Figure 2(Smith et al.)

An analysis of two separate bodies of researched focussed primarily on climate change implications on bushfire management in the twenty-first century discuss some of the weather-related reasons for Australia’s high degree of susceptibility to bushfires. Hennessy et al. conducted a study using historical weather data from 1974-2003 provided by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) to generate climate change scenarios for 2020 and 2050, and to subsequently determine the likelihood of increased risk from bushfires in the twenty-first century.  The study concluded that the occurrence of very high and extreme fire weather days could increase from 4-25 percent by 2020 and from 15-70 per cent by 2050 across some regions of SE Australia.  It also suggested that elevated fire weather risks in spring, summer, and autumn could encourage more winter prescribed burning in future years, as well as to extend the annual bushfire season(Hennessy et al., 2006). 

Hasson et al. looked at potential high-impact fire days by modelling changes to temperature regimes in the twenty-first century under different emissions scenarios, coupled with “strong cold front” days, as research has shown that most high-impact fire weather events in the past 40 years in SE Australia, which experiences summer conditions similar to those found in Western Australia, have been associated with strong cold frontal passage(Hasson et al., 2008) under low- and high-impact scenarios for two twenty-year periods, 2050 and 2090.  The results of this research showed an increase in temperature during both twenty-year periods, and under both scenarios.  It was a recommendation from this body of work that these scenarios be taken into consideration for future fire management planning.

A very different body of research looked at the effects of topography, vegetation type, fuel age, and social factors as varying effects on the fire environment of South Western Australia(O’Donnell, 2009).  The study showed that fuel frequency decreased in wooded regions as compared to mallee and shrub land vegetation, with an increased probability of fire occurrence with increased fuel age.   There was also a relationship found between extensive fire activity (> 100,000Ha) and rainfall regimes; it was found these extensive fire activity periods were associated with below-average rainfall, and also that they were preceded by a year of above-average rainfall and low temperatures(O’Donnell 2009).  This indicates an occurrence of building and subsequent drying of large amounts of fuel, leading to greater fuel loads and environments more conducive to bushfires.

When dealing with the description of, management of, or discussion of a fire regime, it is necessary to distinguish an actual bushfire, or wildfire, from a planned and managed prescribed burn.  A bushfire is an unplanned fire, while a prescribed burn, as defined by the Department of Environment and Conservation under the government of Western Australia, is “the controlled application of fire under specified environmental conditions to a predetermined area…”(DEC, 2011).  With regards to emergency management for bushfires in Western Australia, the approach has seen changes in recent years, including this year.  There are multiple agencies with varied, and sometimes varied roles with regards to bushfire emergency management.  The state is divided into regions, and those regions into districts, each with a regional fire coordinator (RFC) and district fire coordinator (DFC), respectively, responsible for the fire management activities of their respective regions or districts (Figure 3).

Figure 3(Bryce Touchstone, Department of Environment and Conservation, Fire Management Services).

The primary method of bushfire mitigation is with an extensive, cross-regional prescribed burn plan, organized and overseen by the Department of Environment and Conservation (DEC), and carried out and reported on by the responsible RFC and DFC.  The Fire Management Services (FMS) branch of DEC delivers extensive GIS services, specifically mapping products, to field personnel with regards to fuel age, planned versus carried out prescribed burn, burn area, etc. to assist with each region’s seasonal prescribed burn plan.  The BOM issues seasonal climate outlooks, and specific bushfire outlooks, as well as daily bushfire conditions and warnings in the event of potential bushfire activity.  This information coupled with that provided by DEC is utilized on a daily basis by RFC’s, DFC’s, and field personnel to determine what, if any, prescribed burn activities will take place on that day.

            The Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia (FESA) is the primary agency within Western Australia that handles the preparation and response phases of bushfire emergency management state-wide.  FESA has published ‘Prepare. Act. Survive’, a comprehensive guide to ‘preparing for and surviving the bushfire season(FESA, 2011), which includes information on their three-step bushfire readiness scheme, prepare, act, and survive, and several, but equally important checklists including Important Contacts, Preparing Your Survival Kit, Preparing Your Property, Total Fire Bans Fact Sheet, Leaving For a Safer Place, Preparing to Actively Defend, and Planning to Actively Defend(FESA, 2011).

            The government has a policy of either evacuate or ‘Stay and Defend’ with regards to bushfires.  FESA and DEC both issue information regarding home preparation for ‘Stay and Defend’ scenarios, and FESA published a document on methods of preparing a home for ‘Stay and Defend’, among which are fire breaks around the perimeter of the residence, a vegetation-free buffer within the residence, and specific fire ember-resistant air conditioner units(FESA, 2011).  FESA is also the primary agency responsible for emergency response to cyclones, storms, floods, earthquakes, tsunamis, hazardous materials, and search and rescue incidents; as such, they have a number of warning and information dissemination systems, including the Standard Emergency Warning Signal (SEWS), a distinctive siren sound used to alert the target community of relevant safety information regarding a current disaster or emergency, and StateAlert, an automatic, web-driven service which delivers automatic emergency- and disaster-related information directly to landlines and registered mobile phones.

            The BOM issues a range of bushfire risk warnings within the framework of the Fire Danger Rating(FESA, 2011).  Bushfire danger ratings range from Low-Moderate, High, and Very High, to Severe, Extreme, and Catastrophic.  From this and other information, FESA issues a Bushfire Warning, which operates within a framework of Advice, Watch and Act, Emergency Warning, and All Clear(FESA, 2011).  It should be noted that ‘Stay and Defend’ is not advised for Fire Danger Ratings above Severe, as homes are not capable of being built to withstand bushfires in these conditions.  FESA is also primarily responsible for managing Total Fire Bans, as well as partnering with DEC in advising remote farmers and northern property owners of properties of substantial size on prescribed burn and winter burn activities.  Prescribed burn and winter burn is allowed to be carried out privately within certain restrictions, which include all private parties first consulting with their local council or shire and remaining vigilant of the fire environment and its capabilities during the week of the planned burn.

            Prior to February 2011, FESA was an independent agency, outside of government control.  In February 2011 a devastating bushfire in the Perth Hills of Western Australia, while claiming no lives, destroyed more than 70 homes.  As a result, on 23 February, WA Premier Colin Barnett ordered a review of the incident, and the inter-agency response, and a subsequent delivery of the report of findings and recommendations.  This task was assigned to former Federal Police Chief Mick Keelty.  The inquiry involved over 50 hearing with more than 100 witnesses over a period of 2 months, at local Kelmscott, Roleystone, and Armadale civic centers, among over venues.  The report, titled ‘A Shared Responsibility: The Report of the Perth Hills Bushfire February 2011 Review’, was submitted in August 2011, and noted multiple deficiencies on the part of FESA in working alongside DEC and volunteer fire fighters, and a lack of information sharing.  It also found that evidence provided by FESA was in many instances an attempt to hide FESA shortcomings.  Among the results of the report were 55 recommendations, among which were better inter-agency operations and communications, and that FESA’s board be disbanded and FESA itself be brought under government control.  FESA’s board was disbanded, its chief executive sacked, and FESA itself was later made into a government agency.

            It is worth noting one final update just prior to the writing of this paper.  On 23 November, 2011, dormant prescribed burns in the Margaret River jumped control lines under catastrophic fire weather conditions, creating a bushfire that destroyed over 30 homes.  Also across the southern region in the subsequent four days, 24-27 November, four other bushfires burned over 100,000Ha of land.  It was found that the government had only 9 of the 55 recommendations from the Keelty Report had been implemented prior to the 2011 summer bushfire season.  Having been part of the response to those incidents firsthand, as a member of DEC Fire Management Services, the relationship between DEC and FESA was, and will continue to be tested; this is a situation that will no doubt require effort on the part of all parties involved.

______________________________________________________

References

Bureau of Meteorology, cited 2011: Living with Drought.

[http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/drought/livedrought.shtml].

Department of Environment and Conservation, cited 2011: Prescribed burning.

[http://www.dec.wa.gov.au/content/category/49/865/2073/].

Department of Environment and Conservation, cited 2011: Wildfires.

[http://www.dec.wa.gov.au/content/category/49/866/2073/].

Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia, cited 2011: Your Guide to Preparing For and Surviving the Bushfire Season.

[http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/fire/bushfire/BushfireManualsandGuides/FESA_Bushfire-Prepare_Act_Survive_Booklet.pdf].

Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia, cited 2011: The Homeowner’s Bush Fire Survival Manual.

[http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/fire/bushfire/BushfireManualsandGuides/FESA_Bushfire-Homeowners_Survival_Manual.pdf].

Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia, cited 2011: Fire Danger Rating and What It Means To You.

[http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/fire/bushfire/BushfireFactsheets/FESA_Bushfire_Factsheet-Fire_danger_ratings.pdf].

Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia, cited 2011: Bushfire Warnings: What Should You Do?  Survive.

[http://www.fesa.wa.gov.au/safetyinformation/fire/bushfire/BushfireManualsandGuides/FESA_Bushfire-Prepare_Act_Survive_Booklet.pdf].

Hasson, A.E.A., Mills, G.A., Timbal, B., Walsh, K., 2008: Assessing the impact of climate change on extreme fire weather in southeast Australia. CAWCR Technical Report No. 007, 86 pp.

Hennessy, K., Lucas, C., Nicholls, N., Bathols, J., Suppiah, R., Ricketts, J., 2006: Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia. CSIRO & BOM, Libraries Australia ID: 40171855, 91 pp.

Keelty, R., 2011: A Shared Responsibility: The Report of the Perth Hills Bushfire February 2011 Review. Special Inquiry pursuant to s24H(2) of Public Sector Management Act 1994, 211 pp.

MetEd Comet Module, cited 2009: S-290 Unit 1: The Fire Environment.

[http://www.meted.ucar.edu/fire/s290/unit1/navmenu.php?page=2.0.0].

O’Donnell, A., 2009: Historical Patterns of Bushfire in Southern Western Australia. Fire Note, Issue 48, 1-2.

Russell-Smith, J., Yates, C.P., Whitehead, P.J., Smith, R., Craig, R., Allan, G.E., Thackway, R., Frakes, I., Cridland, S., Meyer, M.C.P., Gill, A.M., 2007: Bushfires ‘down under’: patterns and implications of contemporary Australian landscape burning. Int’l. Jnl. of Wildland Fire, 16, 361-377.

Smith, K., Petley, D., 2009: Biophysical Hazards. Environmental Hazards Assessing risk and reducing disaster, Routledge, 221-230.

Discussion on the 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak

This is a discussion on the 27 April 2011 Tornado Outbreak.  For this review, Satellite Imagery, RaDAR Imagery, and mapping products will be used in conjunction with discussion.

Enhanced IR Image; .28.04.2011 @ 0645Z

The above image is an enhanced IR image from GOES East.  The Tx range has been adjusted to (150-330)K.  You can see the explosive convection ahead of the dry line over SE AL associated with synoptic-scale

My RaDAR Paper for SatRad GR6753

A RaDAR Analysis of the 2007 Groundhog Day Tornado Outbreak, Central Florida

 

Introduction

          In the early morning hours of 2 February, 2007, ground temperatures were already rising to levels well above average; coupled with massive amounts of moisture and a powerful mid-level jet stream overhead, synoptic conditions were favourable for severe weather.  The instability and wind shear led to a system of squall lines and supercells across Central Florida which would produce multiple tornadoes, killing 21 people and causing over $200 million in damage.  One of the most dangerous aspects of these storms is that they began at night locally.

          Following is a description of multiple mesoscale events affecting Florida that day.  I describe these events using BR, CR, BV, SRV, VIL, and Tops products provided by NOAA’s HDSS Access System and displayed in GRLevel3.  When viewing these images, please note I use mostly 4-panel windows, with images designated in order from top right to top left, bottom left, and bottom right, the same as a mathematic Cartesian plane.  Also note, there are so many RaDAR signatures associated with this event, however only a few important aspects will be discussed.

RaDAR Analysis

          Below in ‘Img01’, an image of development in the proximity of KJAX Jacksonville, FL at 0224Z, which given the time of year and time difference makes it 2124L (Local).  The area of concern is the area approximately 60nm from the RaDAR unit, or halfway out, in the 3^rd range ring.

Img01; BR0.5, BR1.5, BR2.5, CR; 0224Z

 

  

 

The majority of the reflectivity returns for the southern storm are in BR0.5 and 1.5 tilt angles, which at 60nm means they are at around 13,000 ft.  At a closer look in ‘Img02’, there is also a tight reflectivity gradient with what appears to be a BWER and inflow notch on the southern edge of this storm.  I would be watching for development within this storm.  This is shown by the reflectivity returns as well as relatively high inbound BV returns.  With the Mesocyclone algorithm marks shown for reference, the SRV0.5 product shows what appears to be cyclonic rotation on the WNW side of the storm, and also on the ESE side.  Oddly enough, just to the left of the mesocyclone marks, you can see decreased inbound velocities.  Also, in the reflectivity you see a WEC to the WNW of the main storm, which appears to be causing the entire system to rotate cyclonically.  So basically we have a rotating system with relative rotation within the system itself.  I would be very wary of this storm.

          ‘Img03’ shows what appears to be an MARC at 0319Z.  The BV and SRV both show high velocity differences over a relatively short distance, and given their tilt angles and proximity to the RaDAR unit,  puts this feature at approximately 10,000ft., which is consistent with MARC locations.  At this stage I would be issuing severe storm warnings for Saint Augustine and the surrounding areas due to the threat of powerful winds and downbursting winds at the surface, as well as the potential for hail, given the presence of an MARC signature.

Img02; BR0.5, BV0.5, SRV1.5, CR; 0224Z

  

Img03; BV0.5, BV0.5, SRV0.5, CR; 0319Z

 

Shifting now to KMLB in Melbourne, FL a few hours later, ‘Img04’ shows a WER coming in from the Gulf of Mexico onto the W coast of FL at 0725Z.  There is a tight leading edge reflectivity gradient and a vertical tilt as is evident by the BR1.5, VIL, and Tops products.  Upon seeing this come into viewing range, I would immediately issue a severe thunderstorm warning for Citrus and Sumter Counties, FL due to the potential for flash flooding, hail, downbursts and straight line winds, and possible future BWER development and tornadic formation.

Img04; BR0.5, BR1.5, VIL, Tops; 0725Z

Unfortunately, this storm does indeed intensify rapidly, as is shown by using the Lemon Technique in’Img05’ at 0803Z.  Looking at several levels of the BR product for the same storm you can see its layers vertically, which give a much clearer indication of the storm’s vertical structure, indicating such things as tilt, core location, and rotation.  It is now what appears to be a HP supercell.  You can see by the VIL  that the amount of precipitation aloft has increased dramatically.  There is also a slight vertical tilt, and an apparent hail core aloft.  This is shown by the BR2.5 product, and given its proximity to the RaDAR, approx.. 85nm, puts this hail core at between 25,000-30,000ft aloft.  At this stage, I would be issuing a severe thunderstorm warning for Sumter, Lake, and Marion Counties, FL, citing flash flooding, strong surface winds, and hail all as serious threats.  Additionally, due to the fact that the precipitation at the lowest tilt seems to be migrating slightly to the SW of the precipitation aloft, I would anticipate the imminent development of a BWER, subsequently erring on the side of caution and issuing a tornado watch for the same counties.

Img05; BR0.5, BR1.5, BR2.5, VIL; 0803Z

 

In ‘Img06’, this storm has now become a well-defined supercell at 0811Z, exhibiting all of the signs, the tight reflectivity gradient on the inflow, or southern side of the storm, a BWER alongside the inflow notch, a hook echo, a slight velocity couplet shown in the SRV product, and even a v-notch formed from the shear striking the updraft and fanning out towards the NE.  You can also make out the FFD and RFD.  At this stage I am upgrading to a tornado warning for Sumter, Lake, Marion, and Volusia Counties, FL.  I would expect flash flooding, hail, powerful winds, and a tornado to either form or have already formed with this storm.

Img06; BR0.5, BR1.5, SRV0.5, CR; 0811Z

Img07; BR0.5, BV1.5, SRV1.5, CR; 0849Z

 

In ‘Img07’, you can now see it is very evident there is a tornado present due to the BWER, hooked and tightly-packed gradient nature to the reflectivities, and rotation couplets in both the BV and SRV products as shown by the localized area of inbound/outbound returns shown by the green and red returns, respectively.  I would have already issued an extended tornado warning for Volusia Co., FL, as well as Sanford Co, FL due to the risk of tornadic formation due to spinoff from the flanking line in the RFD of the supercell.

          Switching now to an event later that day, at around 1630Z, or 1130L.  ‘Img08’ shows a storm which appears to be a localized area of rotation, however it seems to have a lack of moisture.  If this were not Florida, I would go so far as to call this system a LP Supercell.  If you look closely, you can make out a slight BWER in the BR product.  You can also notice the slight relative rotation in the SRV product.  I would watch for future development with this storm, issuing a severe thunderstorm warning for Okeechobee Co., FL.

Img08; BR0.5, SRV1.5, BV0.5, CR; 1631Z

 

In ‘Img09’, you can now see a well-defined BWER on the S edge of the storm.  The rotation is more pronounced in the SRV and BV products as well.  The CR product shows that there is yet much more precipitation aloft.  I have also included an image, ‘Img09a’, of the BR product at 0.5, 1.5, and 2.5 tilt angles, as well as VIL to show the lack of substantial moisture in the vertical column above this storm as well as the SE tilt of this storm.  At this stage I would issue a severe thunderstorm warning and tornado watch for Okeechobee, Indian River, and St. Lucie Counties, FL.



Img09; BR0.5, SRV1.5, BV0.5, CR; 1700Z

In ‘Img10’, at 1738Z, you can see that the storm has hit the ocean, and gaining a water source, gained low-level moisture, caused further convection linearly along the N, and now has a well-defined area of inflow from the rear as shown in both SRV and BV products.  The storms died off soon after this, with the passage of a cold front.

Img09a; BR0.5, BR1.5, BR2.5, VIL; 1700Z

Img10; BR0.5, SRV1.5, BV0.5, CR; 1738Z

.BT